At long last, Republicans have filed recall petitions against Democratic state Senators. They made three filings in total, against Jim Holperin, Dave Hansen, and Robert Wirch. In two weeks, it's possible that Republicans will submit recall petitions against Democratic state Senator Julie Lassa as well.
Democrats have already submitted recall petitions against four Republican state Senators: Dan Kapanke, Randy Hopper, Luther Olsen and Sheila Harsdorf. Later today, they will submit recall petitions against a fifth Republican, Alberta Darling. Next week, they are expected to file petition signatures against Republican Robert Cowles.
Given that only four state legislators in Wisconsin history have previously faced recall elections, the current wave of recalls speaks to the extraordinarily high level of engagement in the fight over collective bargaining rights. Back in March, the ridiculously high response rate in our recall polls had also suggested both sides were fired up.
Still, a look at both the number of recall signatures filed and the amount of time it took to file them shows that while Republicans are active and organized in the state, Democrats are more so. Whether you look at the highest estimate of the number of signatures filed, or the lowest estimate, Democrats submitted a higher percentage of signatures required to trigger recall elections and took less time to do so.
Here is a look at the signature estimates for the eight recall efforts that will be filed with the Wisconsin Government Accountability Board by the close of business today. Blue are Democratic recall efforts against Republicans, while pink are Republican recall efforts against Democrats:
Note: Signature estimates are taken from the Wisconsin Government Accountability Board (see here and click on committee names for signature estimates), news reports on the petitions filed by Republicans today, previous news reports on petitions filed against Dan Kanpanke, Randy Hopper, Luther Olsen, and Sheila Harsdorf, as well as Democratic Party of Wisconsin estimates on Alberta Darling recall petitions that I received over email.
As this chart shows, whether one is looking at the highest available estimates for the number of signatures filed, or the lowest available estimates, Democrats gathered more signatures in less time than Republicans. In fact, the Democratic low-end estimate still shows a slightly higher percentage of required signatures (147% vs. 146%) gathered in significantly less time (46 days vs. 56 days) than the Republican high-end estimate. Democrats also did not gather signatures by promising free shots of liquor. among other irregularities.
Make no mistake: both sides are heavily organized and engaged in Wisconsin, so this will not be a cake-walk for anyone. However, Democrats appear to score an early edge in activist intensity, which bodes well for what could be several very close recall elections this summer.
Don't forget to write a thank you note to the remarkable volunteers who gathered recall petition signatures against Wisconsin Republicans. We're closing in on 10,000 thank you notes, a deluge of gratitude that should make our heroes on the ground feel very, very good.
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