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Oil reserves - Business
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Classifications Schematic graph illustrating petroleum volumes and probabilities Curves represent categories of oil in assessment There is a 95 chance i e probability F95 of at least volume V1 of economically recoverable oil and there is a 5 chance F05 of at least volume V2 of economically recoverable oil Reserves are those quantities of petroleum claimed to be commercially recoverable by application of development projects to known accumulations under defined conditions Reserves must satisfy four criteria They must be discovered through one or more exploratory wells recoverable using existing technology commercially viable remaining in the ground All reserve estimates involve uncertainty depending on the amount of reliable geologic and engineering data available and the interpretation of those data The relative degree of uncertainty can be expressed by dividing reserves into two principal classifications proved and unproved Unproved reserves can further be divided into two subcategories probable and possible to indicate the relative degree of uncertainty about their existence The most commonly accepted definitions of these are based on those approved by the Society of Petroleum Engineers SPE and the World Petroleum Council WPC in 1997 Proved reserves Proved reserves are those reserves claimed to have a reasonable certainty normally at least 90 confidence of being recoverable under existing economic and political conditions with existing technology Industry specialists refer to this as P90 i e having a 90 certainty of being produced Proved reserves are also known in the industry as 1P Proved reserves are further subdivided into Proved Developed PD and Proved Undeveloped PUD PD reserves are reserves that can be produced with existing wells and perforations or from additional reservoirs where minimal additional investment operating expense is required PUD reserves require additional capital investment e g drilling new wells to bring the oil to the surface Proved reserves are the only type the U S Securities and Exchange Commission allows oil companies to report to investors Companies listed on U S stock exchanges must substantiate their claims but many governments and national oil companies do not disclose verifying data to support their claims Unproved reserves An oil well in Canada which has the world s second largest oil reserves Unproved reserves are based on geological and or engineering data similar to that used in estimates of proved reserves but technical contractual or regulatory uncertainties preclude such reserves being classified as proved Unproved reserves may be used internally by oil companies and government agencies for future planning purposes but are not routinely compiled They are sub classified as probable and possible Probable reserves are attributed to known accumulations and claim a 50 confidence level of recovery Industry specialists refer to them as P50 i e having a 50 certainty of being produced These reserves are also referred to in the industry as 2P proved plus probable Possible reserves are attributed to known accumulations which have a less likely chance of being recovered than probable reserves This term is often used for reserves which are claimed to have at least a 10 certainty of being produced P10 Reasons for classifying reserves as possible include varying interpretations of geology reserves not producible at commercial rates uncertainty due to reserve infill seepage from adjacent areas and projected reserves based on future recovery methods They are referred to in the industry as 3P proved plus probable plus possible Strategic petroleum reserves Main article global strategic petroleum reserves Many countries maintain government controlled oil reserves for both economic and national security reasons According to the United States Energy Information Administration approximately 4 1 billion barrels 650 000 000 m3 of oil are held in strategic reserves of which 1 4 billion is government controlled These reserves are generally not counted when computing a nation s oil reserves Resources Unconventional oil resources are greater than conventional ones Cumulative oil production plus remaining reserves and undiscovered resources United States not included A more sophisticated system of evaluating petroleum accumulations was adopted in 2007 by the Society of Petroleum Engineers SPE World Petroleum Council WPC American Association of Petroleum Geologists AAPG and Society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers SPEE It incorporates the 1997 definitions for reserves but adds categories for contingent resources and prospective resources Contingent resources are those quantities of petroleum estimated as of a given date to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations but the applied project s are not yet considered mature enough for commercial development due to one or more contingencies Contingent resources may include for example projects for which there are currently no viable markets or where commercial recovery is dependent on technology under development or where evaluation of the accumulation is insufficient to clearly assess commerciality Prospective resources are those quantities of petroleum estimated as of a given date to be potentially recoverable from undiscovered accumulations by application of future development projects Prospective resources have both an associated chance of discovery and a chance of development The United States Geological Survey uses the terms technically and economically recoverable resources when making its petroleum resource assessments Technically recoverable resources represent that proportion of assessed in place petroleum that may be recoverable using current recovery technology without regard to cost Economically recoverable resources are technically recoverable petroleum for which the costs of discovery development production and transport including a return to capital can be recovered at a given market price Unconventional resources exist in petroleum accumulations that are pervasive throughout a large area Examples include extra heavy oil natural bitumen and oil shale deposits Unlike Conventional resources in which the petroleum is recovered through wellbores and typically requires minimal processing prior to sale unconventional resources require specialized extraction technology to produce For example steam and or solvents are used to mobilize bitumen for in situ recovery Moreover the extracted petroleum may require significant processing prior to sale e g bitumen upgraders The total amount of unconventional oil resources in the world considerably exceeds the amount of conventional oil reserves but are much more difficult and expensive to develop Estimation techniques Example of a production decline curve for an individual well The amount of oil in a subsurface reservoir is called oil in place OIP Only a fraction of this oil can be recovered from a reservoir This fraction is called the recovery factor The portion that can be recovered is considered to be a reserve The portion that is not recoverable is not included unless and until methods are implemented to produce it There are a number of different methods of calculating oil reserves These methods can be grouped into three general categories volumetric material balance and production performance Each method has its advantages and drawbacks Volumetric method Further information Extraction of petroleum Oil in place Volumetric methods attempt to determine the amount of oil in place by using the size of the reservoir as well as the physical properties of its rocks and fluids Then a recovery factor is assumed using assumptions from fields with similar characteristics OIP is multiplied by the recovery factor to arrive at a reserve number Current recovery factors for oil fields around the world typically range between 10 and 60 percent some are over 80 percent The wide variance is due largely to the diversity of fluid and reservoir characteristics for different deposits The method is most useful early in the life of the reservoir before significant production has occurred Materials balance method The materials balance method for an oil field uses an equation that relates the volume of oil water and gas that has been produced from a reservoir and the change in reservoir pressure to calculate the remaining oil It assumes that as fluids from the reservoir are produced there will be a change in the reservoir pressure that depends on the remaining volume of oil and gas The method requires extensive pressure volume temperature analysis and an accurate pressure history of the field It requires some production to occur typically 5 to 10 of ultimate recovery unless reliable pressure history can be used from a field with similar rock and fluid characteristics Production decline curve method The decline curve method uses production data to fit a decline curve and estimate future oil production The three most common forms of decline curves are exponential hyperbolic and harmonic It is assumed that the production will decline on a reasonably smooth curve and so allowances must be made for wells shut in and production restrictions The curve can be expressed mathematically or plotted on a graph to estimate future production It has the advantage of implicitly including all reservoir characteristics It requires a sufficient history to establish a statistically significant trend ideally when production is not curtailed by regulatory or other artificial conditions Reserves growth Experience shows that initialestimates of the size of newly discovered oil fields are usually too low As years pass successive estimates of the ultimate recovery of fields tend to increase The term reserve growth refers to the typical increases in estimated ultimate recovery that occur as oil fields are developed and produced Estimated reserves by country See also List of countries by proven oil reserves Countries with largest oil reserves Most of the world s oil reserves are in the Middle East Summary of Reserve Data as of 2008 Country Reserves Production Reserve life 1 109 bbl 109 m3 106 bbl d 103 m3 d years Saudi Arabia 267 42 4 10 2 1 620 72 Canada 179 28 5 3 3 520 149 Iran 138 21 9 4 0 640 95 Iraq 115 18 3 2 1 330 150 Kuwait 104 16 5 2 6 410 110 United Arab Emirates 98 15 6 2 9 460 93 Venezuela2 87 13 8 2 7 430 88 Russia 60 9 5 9 9 1 570 17 Libya 41 6 5 1 7 270 66 Nigeria 36 5 7 2 4 380 41 Kazakhstan 30 4 8 1 4 220 59 United States 21 3 3 7 5 1 190 8 China 16 2 5 3 9 620 11 Qatar 15 2 4 0 9 140 46 Algeria 12 1 9 2 2 350 15 Brazil 12 1 9 2 3 370 14 Mexico 12 1 9 3 5 560 9 Total of top seventeen reserves 1 243 197 6 63 5 10 100 54 Notes 1 Reserve to Production ratio in years calculated as reserves annual production from above OPEC countries There are doubts about the reliability of official OPEC reserves estimates which are not provided with any form of audit or verification that meet external reporting standards Since a system of country production quotas was introduced in the 1980s partly based on reserves levels there have been dramatic increases in reported reserves among OPEC producers In 1983 Kuwait increased its proven reserves from 67 Gbbl 10 710 9 m3 to 92 Gbbl 14 610 9 m3 In 198586 the UAE almost tripled its reserves from 33 Gbbl 5 210 9 m3 to 97 Gbbl 15 410 9 m3 Saudi Arabia raised its reported reserve number in 1988 by 50 In 200102 Iran raised its proven reserves by some 30 to 130 Gbbl 2110 9 m3 which advanced it to second place in reserves and ahead of Iraq Iran denied accusations of a political motive behind the readjustment attributing the increase instead to a combination of new discoveries and improved recovery No details were offered of how any of the upgrades were arrived at The following table illustrates these rises OPEC countries oil reserves of OPEC 19802005 Declared reserves of major Opec Producers billion of barrels BP Statistical Review June 2009 Year Iran Iraq Kuwait Saudi Arabia UAE Venezuela Libya Nigeria 1980 58 3 30 0 67 9 168 0 30 4 19 5 20 3 16 7 1981 57 0 32 0 67 7 167 9 32 2 19 9 22 6 16 5 1982 56 1 59 0 67 2 165 5 32 4 24 9 22 2 16 8 1983 55 3 65 0 67 0 168 8 32 3 25 9 21 8 16 6 1984 58 9 65 0 92 7 171 7 32 5 28 0 21 4 16 7 1985 59 0 65 0 92 5 171 5 33 0 54 5 21 3 16 6 1986 92 9 72 0 94 5 169 7 97 2 55 5 22 8 16 1 1987 92 9 100 0 94 5 169 6 98 1 58 1 22 8 16 0 1988 92 9 100 0 94 5 255 0 98 1 58 5 22 8 16 0 1989 92 9 100 0 97 1 260 1 98 1 59 0 22 8 16 0 1990 92 9 100 0 97 0 260 3 98 1 60 1 22 8 17 1 1991 92 9 100 0 96 5 260 9 98 1 62 6 22 8 20 0 1992 92 9 100 0 96 5 261 2 98 1 63 3 22 8 21 0 1993 92 9 100 0 96 5 261 4 98 1 64 4 22 8 21 0 1994 94 3 100 0 96 5 261 4 98 1 64 9 22 8 21 0 1995 93 7 100 0 96 5 261 5 98 1 66 3 29 5 20 8 1996 92 6 112 0 96 5 261 4 97 8 72 7 29 5 20 8 1997 92 6 112 5 96 5 261 5 97 8 74 9 29 5 20 8 1998 93 7 112 5 96 5 261 5 97 8 76 1 29 5 22 5 1999 93 1 112 5 96 5 262 8 97 8 76 8 29 5 29 0 2000 99 5 112 5 96 5 262 8 97 8 76 8 36 0 29 0 2001 99 1 115 0 96 5 262 7 97 8 77 7 36 0 31 5 2002 130 7 115 0 96 5 262 8 97 8 77 3 36 0 34 3 2003 133 3 115 0 99 0 262 7 97 8 77 2 39 1 35 3 2004 132 7 115 0 101 5 264 3 97 8 79 7 39 1 35 9 2005 137 5 115 0 101 5 264 2 97 8 80 0 41 5 36 2 2006 138 4 115 0 101 5 264 3 97 8 87 3 41 5 36 2 2007 138 2 115
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