Jay Nixon (D-inc): 48 (45)
Peter Kinder (R): 34 (38)
Undecided: 18 (17)Jay Nixon (D-inc): 48
Matt Blunt (R): 38
Undecided: 13Jay Nixon (D-inc): 51
Kenny Hulshof (R): 34
Undecided: 15
(MoE: �3.9%)
Dem Gov. Jay Nixon has expanded his lead over his likely rival, Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder, from seven to 14 points -- that's a pretty sizable swing, and it would be tempting to chalk it up to Kinder's run of bad press over the past few weeks over his habit of ringing up excessive amounts of taxpayer-funded personal expenditures. And yet, Kinder's favorability numbers haven't budged that much, as Tom Jensen explains:
Kinder hasn't had the best couple of months publicity wise but his favorability numbers are relatively unaffected- 24% of voters in the state have a positive opinion of him to 26% with a negative one. That -2 favorability spread only represents a 3 point movement in the wrong direction since March when it was +1 at 25/24. Still that 3 point decline in Kinder's numbers, combined with a 3 point increase in Nixon's net approval, appears to have been enough to double Nixon's lead over Kinder.
Nixon's in pretty decent shape, overall; while he only has a 61% approval rating among Democrats, most of them come home in a contest against Kinder: Nixon wins Democratic voters by an 85-5 spread, and doubles up with a 46-27 lead among independents. Kinder is still fairly unknown (despite all the bad press), so the race is bound to tighten, but Republicans will have a hard time getting over the hump with numbers like these in their way. (PPP also tested unpopular ex-Gov. Matt Blunt and '08 nominee Kenny Hulshof to see if they'd fare any better than the bruised Kinder -- no dice!)
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