What BP Oil could have learned from the US Space Program http://bit.ly/v3r0pg

Article by Chuck Clayton

By using What if? Questions that have been used in the US Space Program extensively, the BP Oil spill disaster might gave been dramatically less, and possibly avoided all together.

It is understood that there may be other problems with BP cutting corners to save money. This is another can of worms and won't be addressed in this article. This article only addresses what should have been done to minimize the effects of this disaster.

BackgroundThe BP Oil spill is one of the biggest man made accidental marine disaster ever. It is leaking at least 210,000 gallons/day. It is already larger than the Exxon Valdez spill that occurred on March 24, 1989.

The BP oil spill began on April 20, 2010 and looks to continue for at least two more months. The disastrous effects will last for decades, just like the accident with Exxon Valdez.How the Disaster could have been minimized, and maybe avoided

One of the most powerful tools that the US Space program uses is What If? Questions.

Using "What if Questions" is a way of applying thought experiments to identify potential problems before they occur, not after. With this knowledge you can to choose to prepare (or not) for different types of scenarios.

Top notch engineers use this technique on areas where safety and mistakes are costly.

For example, BP knows that blowouts are possibilities. By doing "What if Scenarios" before the problem happened they would not have been caught flat footed. They needed to ask the straight forward question:

* What if we have a blowout at (5,000 feet below the surface?)This question will lead to the following types of questions. Here is a sampling. * What are the environments at this depth? o Pressure (there is one atmosphere of pressure for ~ every 34 feet.).o Temperatures at this level.o Temperature, pressure and water environment combined effects.* What are all the available equipment (around the world) is available that can be used? This should be rather limited because of the depths they are working in.* What are the various ways to plug the leak. Not only should this be looked at in the oilfield industry, but use the Theory of Inventive Problem Solving (to look at how other industries would plug holes).

Using What if scenarios would have opened BP to a wide array of problems to review and assess. Then, "if" the scenario happens, they would be more prepared than if they never thought about the outcome of their actions in the first place-which seems to be the case.

Also, doing What if Questions could have uncovered many ways this disaster could have been avoided.

An excellent explanation of the power of What if Questions is that the US Space Program used is provided in the Book: Carrying the Fire - An Astronaut's Journey by Michael Collins.Collins writes:

"Thus, as in the case of so much astronaut training, the information has never really been needed, but it nonetheless was prudent to try to prepare people for as many variations upon the expected theme as possible.

I think this has been one of NASA's great strengths in the conduct of Gemini, and even more so, the Apollo series. Large groups of capable men have sat for years around conference tables with engineering schematic drawings and asked themselves "What happens if?"

As we know the Gemini and Apollo missions were incredibly successful missions. Twelve astronauts walked on the surface of the moon and came safely back to earth as John Kennedy had requested. They achieved the dream of a nation--and of a world.

"Anything one man can imagine, other men can make real"~ Jules Verne

How horrific that BP didn't do their homework. How many animals and humans will suffer?

Any laws coming from this fiasco should include demanding that BP and other offshore companies have done solid "What if questions" and provide that before they are licensed to drill!

For more critical thinking skills see: http://bit.ly/f2P4Hs